Bracketology - 3.10.14

I've said for a few weeks now that it would be a shock if Florida, Arizona and Wichita State, in some order, didn't occupy the first three No. 1 seeds.

Now, about that final No. 1 seed...

Right now it belongs to Villanova and a Big East Tournament title would cement that. The Wildcats aren't flashy but a three-loss team (with the only defeats coming to then-undefeated Syracuse and to Creighton, twice) 'Nova just keeps winning. Even with the gaudy record I don't believe Villanova is the fourth-best team. However, all other contenders for that spot seem to be faltering as of late.

• Virginia plowed through the ACC season only to lose at NIT-bound Maryland in the season finale.
• Duke has six losses, including a couple bad ones to Clemson and Notre Dame.
• Michigan has seven losses and, even though only one is puzzling - Charlotte in November - the number might outweight the fact Michigan won the Big Ten title by three (!) games. (NOTE: Only three teams in NCAA history have been a No. 1 seed with seven losses: Michigan State in 2000, Illinois in 2001 and Michigan State again in 2012).
• Syracuse might be 26-4 but the soft nonconference schedule plus the late-season swoon have the Orange looking at a 2/3 seed at best.
• Kansas has eight losses. No team has ever been a No. 1 seed with eight losses.

The one exception and darkhorse for the final No. 1 seed: Louisville. The defending champs are 26-5 and don't have a bad loss this season (at Kentucky, at Memphis, vs. Memphis, vs. Cincinnati, neutral-cout vs. UNC) and the Cardinals appear to be peaking. Throw in an AAC Tournament Championship and some losses by a pair of above-listed contenders, especially Villanova, and Louisville might surprise many with a No. 1 seed.

Here's the updated bracket through Sunday, March 9 games:

NOTES: There is a lot uninformed chatter from folks begging to be the No. 2 seed in Wichita State's region. There's a reason I call those folks uninformed. The Shockers are for real, people. They might not win it all (probably won't given the odds) but that doesn't mean this team isn't very good. The best-case scenario for teams jockeying for that final No. 1 seed if that wish falls through: Grab the No. 2 in Villanova's region.

It's not that the Wildcats are bad but they're the weakest No. 1 seed and, using LVH Superbook's NCAA Tournament odds, Villanova would be a tied for eighth-best odds (tied for final No. 2 seed) at 18/1. Michigan State, which looks like a No. 3 seed at best but more likely in the 4/5 range. Kansas, at 6/1, has the second-best odds behind Florida (9/2).

The point is, Villanova would be the desirable opponent. For teams in the 3/4/5 range (a la Michigan State, North Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.), Vegas' odds would say a region with Villanova-Syracuse as the 1-2 seeds would be the "easy" region.

BUBBLE THOUGHTS: Conference tournaments will decide much of bubble talk in the next week. Remember, teams play their respective ways IN the tournament more than teams play their respective ways OUT.

My play-in game teams - Minnesota, Xavier, Tennessee and UW-Green Bay* - have opportunities this week to impress the committee and keep their "spots" in the field. (*UW-GB fell in the Horizon league semis to Milwaukee but a hunch says the team many will forget about finds a spot in Dayton). Teams like Missouri, California, Dayton, Providence and Arkansas have opportunities this week to impress the committee. Remember, one win won't put these teams in the dance because the season is an entire body of work composition. Nevertheless, all have opportunities to make a statement.

• Minnesota really has a must-win first-round Big Ten Tournament game vs. Penn State. A win there is good but a win in the quarterfinals over Wisconsin likely would seal the deal. A loss and the Gophers could be passed up by other teams.
• Xavier has to beat Marquette in the Big East semis to feel safe and then a win over Creighton would seemingly clinch a bid.
• Tennessee is an interesting case, as noted by Ken Pomeroy. In an ultimate bubble game against Arkansas in the quarterfinals a loss likely hurts more than a win helps. Anyone knocking off Florida in the semifinals would surely get a bid, right?

When it's all said and done there likely will be four teams vying for the final two slots and that is what'll separate "bracketologists" into the 66/68, 67/68 and perfection 68/68 categories. Until then...

Defensive Score Sheet: Duke 93, North Carolina 81

Rodney Hood (left) was as valuable defensively as he
was offensively against the Tar Heels. (AP)

Round II of Duke-UNC went the way most expected: North Carolina, winners of 12 straight, likely would finally cool down while the Blue Devils would protect home court on senior night and extend the Cameron winning streak to 33 games.

It was one of those rare, "things played out just as most figured they would" games.

Both offenses, as is typical Duke/UNC clash, excelled while defense took a backseat for much of the game.

Bracketology: Battle for final No. 1 seed is heating up

It seems pretty clear Arizona and Florida are battling for the No. 1 overall seed while Wichita State, even with a loss in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, will be the third No. 1 seed with a 31-1 record in a worst-case scenario.

The battle for the final No. 1 seed is heating up with Kansas, Villanova and Wisconsin as the lead competitors. Michigan and Virginia are in the second tier of teams that could nab the No. 1 seed. I don't see any way Syracuse and Duke can climb back up to the top line. A team like Michigan State, when fully healthy - as it looked like against Iowa last night - plays like a No. 1 seed but it appears a best-case scenario that includes winning at Ohio State and claiming the Big Ten Tournament title would net a No. 2 seed.

The bottom of the bubble is ugly as usual and the final five to six spots will likely be determined by how teams fare in conference tournaments.

Here's our bracket projection (through Thursday night's games on March 6th):

Defensive Score Sheet: Michigan 79, Michigan State 70

Russell Byrd's matador defense late in the first half proved costly
for the Spartans as the U-M stole momentum and never looked back. (AP)

It's always an interesting game within a game: The Turning Point.

Listen to commentators for forty minutes and by the final buzzer there will have been at least a half dozen turning points that lead to Team X defeating Team Y. (Of course, some of those turning points had Team Y beating Team X but were negated when something else happened).

Pick the turning point from Michigan's 79-70 win against Michigan State - a win that makes this the first Wolverines senior class to have a winning record vs. the Spartans (6-2) since the 1996-99 seniors:

• Option A - 1H, 9:57 (MSU 22, Michigan 11): Michigan goes into a 1-3-1 zone. Keith Appling drives and kicks to Gary Harris who hits a 3-pointers...except Appling is called for an offensive foul - his second - and sits the rest of the half. Michigan proceeds to go on a 10-0 run over the next four minutes.
  
• Option B - 1H, 2:18-0:39 (MSU 31, Michigan 24): Russell Byrd checks in to give Alvin Ellis III a blow. Byrd proceeds to play his worst defense of the year. First, Caris LeVert breaks Byrd down on a jump shot. Next, Glenn Robinson, sensing a mismatch, takes Byrd to the hole for an And-1 (he missed the free throw). Lastly, LeVert takes Byrd to the rim, makes a basket and gets fouled. He converts the 3-point play.
  
• Option C - 1H, 0:01 (MSU 36, Michigan 31): After MSU's Gary Harris hits a jumper with five seconds left in the half, Caris LeVert beats MSU's defense down the court and hits a 3-pointer at the buzzer.
  
• Option D - 2H, 14:17 (MSU 48, Michigan 43): The Nik Stauskas show really begins heating up with a 3-pointer. Stauskas had already scored five points in the half, but it was this triple that started a stretch where Stauskas alone went on a 11-4 run. MSU never led after Stauskas' 3-pointer at the 10:04 mark to give U-M a 54-52 lead.

Defensive Score Sheets - Duke & Syracuse, Rounds 1 and 2

Jim Boeheim: "I just thought it was the worst call of the year, that's all." (AP)

• Is Jabari Parker really not as bad defensively as people make him out to be (like most impressions of him in the loss to North Carolina)?
  
  
• How valuable will be Marshall Plumlee come tournament time?
  
  
• Andre Dawkins seems to have trouble defensively against Syracuse, no?
  
  
• C.J. Fair, not Tyler Ennis, is Syracuse's best and most valuable player.

Those are some basic impressions looking at a two-pack of defensive score sheets from America's newest favorite rivalry: Duke vs. Syracuse. Here are the defensive box scores from the team's two meetings (so far?) in 2014. Draw your own conclusions.

Defensive Score Sheet - North Carolina 74, Duke 66

The look on Jabari Parker's (1) face was how many viewers felt
about his individual defensive performance vs. the Tar Heels. (AP)

As Doug Gottlieb was pointing out with video evidence this morning on Twitter (via Instagram), Duke's Jabari Parker really had a horrific defensive game. Worried about early foul trouble Parker did his best work on help-side defensive players. When it came to one-on-one it was painful to watch. He consistently turned his shoulders the wrong way when pressuring a ball handler and occasionally his defense could best be described as "ole-style."

Still, despite Parker's obvious struggles against UNC's quicker guards and wings, the country's best freshman was Duke's second-best defender based on the numbers.

How so?

Defensive Score Sheet - Michigan 70, Ohio State 60

Just like he did in a road win at Michigan State Michigan's Derrick
Walton Jr., was the catalyst in leading U-M to a win at OSU. (AP)

It hasn't even been a full season of Derrick Walton's college career and he's already being put on a pedestal next to Trey Burke. Burke, of course, led Michigan to last year's NCAA Championship game as a sophomore and has had a solid rookie year for the NBA's Utah Jazz this season.

While I wouldn't put Walton in the same neighborhood as Burke I can see why people are quick to make the comparisons. Walton seems to have a great handle on the speed of the game and his hesitation dribbles and pick-and-roll sets and in Michigan's two biggest road games - at Michigan State and at Ohio State - it was Walton who led his team to victory down the stretch.

His defense is coming around as well. Not only did he record a double-double in Tuesday's 70-60 win over the Buckeyes (nine of his 10 rebounds were defensive boards) but the way he boxed out and defended all game was terrific. It should be noted the final basket he allowed was a basic ole with Michigan up by double digits in the closing seconds.