Thursday, April 25, 2013

2013 NFL Mock Draft

One of these guys - Joeckel or Fisher - will go No. 1 to Kansas City. 

Ah... the 2013 NFL Draft comes to us tonight with a few huge questions. The biggest questions, in my eyes, are: What happens with the first two picks, and what will Philadelphia do at No. 4 if the Eagles don't find a trading partner. Those moves seemingly will shape how the draft goes.

With the Detroit Lions' pick at No. 5 the draft could get interesting. If the Lions take Dee Millner - what I said Detroit should do without a second of hesitation in my earlier post on Detroit's draft needs - it leaves BYU's Ziggy Ansah in a potential free fall or as a hotly-coveted player resulting in an early trade. If Detroit does indeed take Ansah (or if the below Top 5 makes up the NFL Draft's Top 5 in some order) then it leaves potential Top-5 guys like Millner or Dion Jordan there for the taking.

I've projected trades in the past and projecting a wrong trade just makes a projected mock look ridiculous. Therefore, here is the draft with no projected trades. Last year's Mock Draft didn't have great numbers, but it was pretty much on with all other "experts" in the field. It nailed 22 of 32 eventual first rounders, pegged six  picks in the exact spot and seven with the exact team (I had Jacksonville taking Justin Blackmon wherever the Jags picked; Jacksonville moved up to No. 5 from No. 8 to get him). Again, very pedestrian numbers but that's the typical crap shoot of the NFL Draft.

Here's my best take on what 2013 will bring (with a few comments afterward):




  • PICK NO.
    1
    KC
    OT
    CENTRAL MICHIGAN
  • PICK NO.
    2
    JAC
    OT
    TEXAS A&M


    1. PICK NO.3
      OAK
      SHARRIF FLOYD
      DT
      FLORIDA
    2. PICK NO.
      4
      PHI
      LANE JOHNSON
      OT
      OKLAHOMA
    3. PICK NO.
      5
      DET
      ZIGGY ANSAH
      DE
      BYU

    4. PICK NO.
      6
      CLE
      GENO SMITH
      QB
      WEST VIRGINIA
    5. PICK NO.
      7
      ARI
      DION JORDAN
      DE
      OREGON
    6. PICK NO.
      8
      BUF
      TAVON AUSTIN
      WR
      WEST VIRGINIA
    7. PICK NO.
      9
      NYJ
      DEE MILLNER
      CB
      ALABAMA
    8. PICK NO.
      10
      TEN
      JONATHAN COOPER
      OG
      NORTH CAROLINA
    9. PICK NO.
      11
      SD
      CHANCE WARMACK
      OG
      ALABAMA
    10. PICK NO.
      12
      MIA
      D.J. FLUKER
      OT
      ALABAMA
    11. PICK NO.
      13
      NYJ
      KENNY VACCARO
      S
      TEXAS
    12. PICK NO.
      14
      CAR
      STAR LOTULELEI
      DT
      UTAH
    13. PICK NO.
      15
      NO
      JARVIS JONES
      OLB
      GEORGIA
    14. PICK NO.
      16
      STL
      ALEC OGLETREE
      ILB
      GEORGIA
    15. PICK NO.
      17
      PIT
      BARKEVIOUS MINGO
      DE
      LSU
    16. PICK NO.
      18
      DAL
      SHELDON RICHARDSON
      DT
      MISSOURI
    17. PICK NO.
      19
      NYG
      BJOERN WERNER
      DE
      FLORIDA ST.
    18. PICK NO.
      20
      CHI
      TYLER EIFERT
      TE
      NOTRE DAME
    19. PICK NO.
      21
      CIN
      ERIC REID
      FS
      LSU
    20. PICK NO.
      22
      STL
      SYLVESTER WILLIAMS
      DT
      NORTH CAROLINA
    21. PICK NO.
      23
      MIN
      MANTI TE'O
      LB
      NOTRE DAME
    22. PICK NO.
      24
      IND
      D.J. HAYDEN
      CB
      HOUSTON
    23. PICK NO.
      25
      MIN
      XAVIER RHODES
      CB
      FLORIDA ST.
    24. PICK NO.
      26
      GB
      EDDIE LACY
      RB
      ALABAMA
    25. PICK NO.
      27
      HOU
      KEENAN ALLEN
      WR 
      CALIFORNIA 
    26. PICK NO.
      28
      DEN
      KEVIN MINTER
      LB
      LSU
    27. PICK NO.
      29
      NE
      RYAN NASSIB*
      QB
      SYRACUSE.
    28. PICK NO.
      30
      ATL
      MATT ELAM
      FS
      FLORIDA
    29. PICK NO.
      31
      SF
      jamar taylor
      CB
      boise st.
    30. PICK NO.
      32
      BAL
      JONATHAN CYPRIEN
      SS






      FLORIDA INT'L


    *The Patriots will NOT take QB Ryan Nassib at No. 29. That is one spot (or at the very least close to a spot) that some team will trade back into the first round to get "their guy." Maybe the Browns don't take Geno Smith at No. 6 or maybe the Raiders and Cardinals mortgage the future to get a shot at Nassib. 

    Honestly, once the draft gets past No. 15 everything will get crazy. From 22 on down everything is a guess equivalent to dart throwing. I do believe these should be all the first rounders (though a few WRs (Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson and Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins) could slip in. I couldn't find players I would drop, however. What it means is that some teams (are you listening, Detroit?) might have a shot at guys like Matt Elam, Jamar Taylor and Jonathan Cyprien early in Round 2. That is in addition to Desmond Trufant who very easily could be a first rounder.

    THE STREAK LIVES: With Eddie Lacy going to Green Bay at No. 26 the streak of a running back being drafted in the first round survives. The last NFL Draft without a first-round RB: 1963. (There were only 14 first round picks in that draft but the point remains clear).

    THE STREAK DIES: For the first time since 1953 no Big Ten player will go in the first round. That's a pretty telling statistic. The conference's best chance for that streak to survive: OSU DT Johnathan Hankins (currently ranked the No. 13 defensive lineman by NFL.com's grading) or Purdue DT Kawann Short (16th).  I could see a team liking either - they're both 6-3 and 320 and 299 pounds, respectively - more than guys like Bjoern Werner or Cornellius Carradine.

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