Bracketology - 3.15.14

Some teams are playing themselves into the tournament while others are (already have) played themselves out. Here's the latest rundown as of 1 a.m. Saturday morning:

Here are a few notes:
  • As I said earlier in the week, Louisville is going to make a real charge at a No. 1 seed. While winning the AAC Tournament isn't terribly glamorous the Cardinals are clicking now. Seriously, winning back-to-back games 92-31 and 94-65 is impressive regardless of the competition. A win against UConn might propel Louisville to the final No. 1 seed if the following happen on Saturday: Ohio State beats Michigan, Michigan State beats Wisconsin and Duke loses to NC State. (If Duke doesn't win the ACC Tournament I believe the Cardinals will still have a shot at the final No. 1 seed).
  • I have a hunch UW-Green Bay gets into the field. It might feel like a 2011 VCU inclusion over teams with more victories but UW-GB was solid all season and has a win over Virginia (which will only look better the further Virginia goes in the ACC Tournament). The Phoenix will be the surprise of Selection Sunday. You heard it here first!
  • By losing its ninth games Kansas might actually fall to the 3 line - which I'm projecting here. That'll be brutal for a surging six seed.
  • If Michigan or Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Tournament, because the title-game opponent will be really good, should get the final No. 1 seed regardless of what happens with Duke, Louisville, et al. The Big Ten's top was that good and for Michigan to win both titles would be quite an accomplishment, seven total losses or not.
  • Welcome to the No. 3 line, Syracuse.
  • Villanova is on the No. 1 line right now because other teams haven't passed the Wildcats... yet. It will happen, but at the moment 'Nova's resume is better. Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville and Duke - in order - are the two seeds fighting for that spot.
  • Remember, NO team that has lost its first conference tournament game has won the NCAA Championship. That is bad news for Syracuse, Villanova and North Carolina. 
  • The last team to win the NCAA Championship when not winning either a regular season conference title or the tournament title: 1997 Arizona. Keep that in mind on Selection Sunday.