Sunday, March 16, 2014

FINAL 2014 BRACKETOLOGY

With only two championship games to play (Big Ten and SEC) the field, at least in my eyes, is set.

Florida looks to be the No. 1 overall seed regardless of its result vs. Kentucky and the Wildcats aren't going to jump any teams with a victory.

Michigan has the best resume of teams in consideration for that final No. 1 seed - albeit by a slight margin over Wisconsin and Villanova. Even with a loss to Michigan State I see the Wolverines taking the final No. 1 seed. Michigan State seems to have righted the ship and with a complete body of work that's particularly impressive in road and neutral sites, looks like it'll be on the No. 3 line.

Here's our final projection for the 2014 NCAA Tournament:


NOTES

  • After reviewing resumes and re-considering the injury to BYU's Kyle Collingsworth I believe the committee will have the Cougars as the first team out, opening up the final at-large spot for Dayton to play the First Four in its own building.
  • Michigan deserves the final No. 1 seed regardless of the Big Ten Tournament final result. A 69-55 loss to Michigan State was more indicative of a healthy MSU team and it shouldn't diminish what Michigan did from November until the Big Ten Tourney final.
  • Louisville, even though the Cardinals had climbed as high as a No. 2 seed yesterday, are on the No. 3 line because it's a 34-game regular season. The last five games have been awfully impressive but the Cardinals don't have a single win over an out-of-conference tournament team. Louisville's best nonconference win: vs. a NIT-bound Southern Miss. That'll bit the Cards.
  • Virginia takes the final No. 2 seed with the ACC regular season and tournament titles. Any talk of Virginia as a No. 1 seed is nuts to me if we look at complete bodies of work. Virginia is good but not one of four best resumes. 
  • I'll be pulling for Green Bay, mostly because I would love a perfect bracket and I think the Phoenix are the team that can deliver it but also because it's nice to see a team with a quality nonconference schedule (win over Virginia, losses to Harvard and Wisconsin) get rewarded despite an early-conference tournament loss.

[UPDATE]


  • We correctly predicted 66 of 68 teams this year. Not perfection and not a personal best but not much far off the national norm.
  • We did set a personal best with 60 of the 68 teams being seeded either perfect or within one seed line. (Just 27 were the exact seed but another 33 were within the one seed line).
  • We missed on BYU (that was our first team out) and NC State (puzzling to say the least). 
  • Green Bay didn't make the cut, which is sad for many reasons. SMU had an uphill climb with a nonconference schedule in the 300s. Had I realize it was that bad I might have flipped BYU and SMU, but I wouldn't have had NC State in the field regardless. Oh well...
  • Biggest "mistakes" were having New Mexico as a 4 (Lobos got a 7), and UMass a 10 (Minutemen got a 6). Although, most people seem to feel those seeds were absurd so I guess I'm not alone. 


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