Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Bracketology - 2.27-18

It seems two teams have locked in a No. 1 seed: Virginia and Kansas. Villanova is pretty close.

That fourth No. 1 seed, like last year, will come down to the final week of the regular season and conference tournament play.

Here's this morning's bracket update which saw Duke slide back down to the No. 2 line after Duke lost to Virginia Tech. Xavier slides back up to a No. 1.

Last 4 In: Texas, UCLA, Baylor, Louisville
First 4 Out: Providence, Syracuse, Boise St., Washington
Next 6 Out: Marquette, Georgia, Nebraska, Penn State, Utah, Notre Dame

Monday, February 26, 2018

Bracketology - 2.26.18

Reviewing the overall body of work for all teams resulted in some major shakeups. Duke has now vaulted to the fourth No. 1 seed while Xavier slides down to a No. 2 seed. North Carolina, another streaking team with a solid top-to-bottom resume, takes the final No. 2 seed. Texas Tech and Auburn are now No. 3 seeds.

Michigan State, despite a 28-3 record and outright Big Ten Championship, sits as a No. 2 seed because the big-time wins just aren't there compared to other teams. MSU could play itself up to a No. 1 seed if it does the following: Win the Big Ten Tournament with victories over Michigan in the semifinals and either Purdue or Ohio State in the finals. Winning the tournament without adding those two neutral-site wins won't quite prop up MSU's resume as much as needed.

Last 4 In: Texas, UCLA, Baylor, Louisville
First 4 Out: Providence, Syracuse, Boise St., Washington
Next 6 Out: Marquette, Georgia, Nebraska, Penn State, Utah, Notre Dame


                                              The Deuce2Sports S-curve (thru 2/25 games)

1VIRGINIA2VILLANOVA3KANSAS4DUKE
5XAVIER6MICHIGAN ST.7PURDUE8NORTH CAROLINA
9AUBURN10TEXAS TECH11CINCINNATI12TENNESSEE
13OHIO STATE14CLEMSON15WEST VIRGINIA16RHODE ISLAND
17GONZAGA18KENTUCKY19ARIZONA20MICHIGAN
21WICHITA ST.22TEXAS A&M23CREIGHTON24NEVADA
25OKLAHOMA26ALABAMA27HOUSTON28FLORIDA ST.
29ARIZONA ST.30MISSOURI31SETON HALL32ARKANSAS
33ST. MARY'S34TCU35FLORIDA36VIRGINIA TECH
37MIAMI38BUTLER39KANSAS ST.40NC STATE
41MIDDLE TENNESSEE42ST. BONAVENTURE43USC44TEXAS
45UCLA46LOUISVILLE47BAYLOR48NEW MEXICO ST.
49E. TENNESSEE ST.50LOYOLA (CHI)
51LOUISIANA52MURRAY ST.53SOUTH DAKOTA ST.54VERMONT
55MONTANA56BUFFALO57NORTHERN KENTUCKY58RIDER
59BUCKNELL60CHARLESTON61UC-SANTA BARBARA62PENN
63WAGNER64FLA-GULF COAST65NICHOLLS ST.66WINTHROP
67SAVANNAH ST.68GRAMBLING

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Bracketology - 2.22.18

There haven't been that many shakeups at the top, but keep an eye on the Michigan Wolverines. Despite being locked into either the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan is trending up and could find itself on the No. 4/No. 5 line on Selection Sunday depending on what happens in New York City.

At this point, Michigan is the final No. 5 seed (No. 20 on our S-curve) after Wednesday night's win at Penn State.

Trending downward is Oklahoma. Yet, despite some saying Oklahoma is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, the Sooners are still a No. 6 seed (and No. 23 on the S-curve). Why? Quite simply, the games in November and December still matter. If nonconference and early-conference games didn't matter, then why does NCSOS come into play? Why not just pick the teams who are the hottest and put them in the tournament (see Baylor et al)? Oklahoma might find itself in an interesting 7/10 game if the struggles continue, but that's as the No. 7 seed - one that definitely isn't on the bubble.

Last 4 In: USC, UCLA, Baylor, Syracuse
First 4 Out: Louisville, St. Bonaventure, Washington, Marquette
Next 7 Out: Boise St, Penn St., Georgia, LSU, Nebraska, Utah, Notre Dame 

The Deuce2Sports S-curve (updated Wednesday night)


1VIRGINIA2VILLANOVA3XAVIER4KANSAS
5DUKE6PURDUE7MICHIGAN ST.8TEXAS TECH
9AUBURN10NORTH CAROLINA11CINCINNATI12CLEMSON
13OHIO STATE14ARIZONA15TENNESSEE16RHODE ISLAND
17GONZAGA18WEST VIRGINIA19KENTUCKY20MICHIGAN
21TEXAS A&M22WICHITA ST.23OKLAHOMA24CREIGHTON
25ALABAMA26ARIZONA ST.27MISSOURI28FLORIDA
29MIAMI30NEVADA31PROVIDENCE32FLORIDA ST.
33ST. MARY'S34SETON HALL35ARKANSAS36BUTLER
37TEXAS38VIRGINIA TECH39HOUSTON40TCU
41NC STATE42KANSAS ST.43UCLA44USC
45BAYLOR46SYRACUSE47MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST.48NEW MEXICO ST.
49E. TENNESSEE ST.50LOYOLA (CHI)
51LOUISIANA52BELMONT53SOUTH DAKOTA ST.54VERMONT
55MONTANA56BUFFALO57WRIGHT ST.58RIDER
59BUCKNELL60CHARLESTON61UC-SANTA BARBARA62HARVARD
63WAGNER64FLA-GULF COAST65NICHOLLS ST.66WINTHROP
67SAVANNAH ST.68GRAMBLING

Monday, February 19, 2018

Bracketology - 2.19.18

One week after the initial "Top 16" release has produced typical mid-February carnage. Here's our updated bracket which features plenty of changes from our initial bracket last Sunday.

Last 4 In: UCLA, USC, Baylor, Penn State
First 4 Out: Louisville, St. Bonaventure, Syracuse, Marquette
Next 6 Out: Boise State, Washington, LSU, Nebraska, Utah, Notre Dame

The most notable changes are two teams - Penn State and Baylor - moving into the field this week while Washington and Louisville have dropped out.

Nebraska couldn't afford any losses - bad or otherwise - to maybe sneak into the field with plenty of wins but none of real quality. Instead, Nebraska lost at Illinois on Sunday to all but kill any chances of going dancing.

Keep an eye on Notre Dame. While they are No. 10 on my list of teams missing the cut, the Irish have plenty of chances left to make a splash and Coach Mike Brey says star Bonzie Colson is expected back in a week. If Colson helps lift Notre Dame's play, the Irish could be a surprise team playing in Dayton and, when healthy a legit Sweet 16 squad.

Sunday, February 11, 2018

Bracketology - 2-11-18


Thanks the the NCAA college basketball selection committee taking a page out of the College Football Playoff Committee's book and giving a sneak peek at the rankings, we have an "official" Top 16 to work from.

Naturally, there seem to be some issues. Arguably the best team in the country doesn't quite have a top-tier resume. (Making an Alabama football to MSU basketball analogy here)... Will MSU get the benefit of the doubt, if it runs the table, to find a spot on the top line, or, at the very least, as one of the first No. 2 seeds?

The other qualm many will indeed have with the committee is this: "So-and-so has (fill-in-the-blank) Quadrant 1 and 2 wins." Again, we're reaching the point where people are discounting losses completely; as long as a team has played a lot of Q1 and Q2 games, winning a handful, of course, losses won't be discussed.

A team like Kansas has nine Q1 and Q2 wins which, according to the committee's No. 2 seed (sixth overall) is enough to eliminate six losses, including one at home to Oklahoma State and another on the road at Baylor.

We'll see if the committee listens to the outside noise over the next week or so based on the initial rankings and maybe changes some things. One thing is certain: The first year of the "quadrant experiment" will absolutely throw some wrenches into the bracket.

Here's the first Deuce2Sports Bracketology of the season:

LAST FOUR IN: UCLA, Louisville, Houston, USC
FIRST FOUR OUT: Marquette Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, Nebraska