LAST 4 IN: Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Rutgers
FIRST 4 OUT: Oklahoma State, Nevada, Vanderbilt, Oregon
NEXT 4 OUT: Clemson, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin
We’re pretty confident in our 68 teams – we always are, but even a bit more so in 2023.
The biggest struggle was seeding the 4/5 lines, the 6/7 lines, and the 10/11 lines. Depending on what the committee values, you could see teams on either line to be honest.
Toughest Decisions
- The final No. 4 seed. Xavier’s entire body of work seems to give it the edge, but Duke’s recent run (ACC Tournament title, nine straight wins) and TCU’s gauntlet Big XII schedule make it tough to evaluate.
- The final No. 6 seed. We were torn between Creighton and Kentucky. So many of the analytics are similar, but we went with the Blue Jays; Kentucky’s Q4 loss to South Carolina was the tiebreaker.
- The Last 4 In grouping. As noted yesterday, there were a legit eight teams that we had in the field who could have been in that “Last 4 In” group. A little rescrubbing today elevated Arizona State out of that group and dropped Providence in. While it’s factored into the NET, a close-to-300 number in a team’s NCSOS column is a major red flag. That coupled with a low number of Q1 wins and Q3/Q4 losses is why we ended up with a Last 4 In group of Mississippi State, NC State, Providence, Rutgers.
What wouldn’t shock us:
- NC State, Providence or Rutgers missing the tournament. Rutgers has the best resume of the group, but the Scarlet Knights have been floundering down the stretch and have a 300+ NCSOS. The biggest issue? Who replaced them? Clemson’s NCSOS is 334 and, outside of a win vs. Duke, it’s hanging its hat on a win vs. Penn State and a three-game sweep of NC State? Vanderbilt can’t erase 1/2 of the season. Oregon’s overall resume just doesn’t have enough. Michigan and North Carolina didn’t beat enough good teams (a combined 2 Q1 wins won’t get it done).
